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Hindsight Credit Assignment for Long-Horizon LLM Agents

arXiv cs.AI / 3/11/2026

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Key Points

  • Large Language Model (LLM) agents struggle with credit assignment in long-horizon, multi-step tasks due to sparse rewards, causing challenges in accurate Q-value estimation and value baseline alignment.
  • The proposed HCAPO framework introduces hindsight credit assignment by using the LLM itself as a post-hoc critic to refine step-level Q-values and incorporates a multi-scale advantage mechanism to improve value baselines.
  • Evaluations on benchmarks such as WebShop and ALFWorld show that HCAPO outperforms state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods, improving success rates by 7.7% and 13.8% respectively over the GRPO baseline.
  • HCAPO enhances exploration efficiency, promotes concise decision-making, and scales well for complex, long-horizon tasks, marking a significant step forward in LLM agent performance.
  • This work addresses fundamental bottlenecks in RL-based LLM agent credit assignment, enabling more reliable and scalable performance in sequential decision-making problems.

Computer Science > Machine Learning

arXiv:2603.08754 (cs)
[Submitted on 7 Mar 2026]

Title:Hindsight Credit Assignment for Long-Horizon LLM Agents

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Abstract:Large Language Model (LLM) agents often face significant credit assignment challenges in long-horizon, multi-step tasks due to sparse rewards. Existing value-free methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), encounter two fundamental bottlenecks: inaccurate step-level Q-value estimation and misaligned value baselines for intermediate states. To address these limitations, we introduce HCAPO, the first framework to integrate hindsight credit assignment into LLM agents. HCAPO leverages the LLM itself as a post-hoc critic to refine step-level Q-values through hindsight reasoning. Furthermore, HCAPO's multi-scale advantage mechanism effectively supplements the inaccurate value baselines at critical decision states. Evaluations across three challenging benchmarks, including WebShop and ALFWorld, demonstrate that HCAPO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art RL methods. Notably, HCAPO achieves a 7.7% improvement in success rate on WebShop and a 13.8% on ALFWorld over GRPO using the Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct model. These results indicate that HCAPO significantly enhances exploration efficiency, promotes concise decision-making, and ensures scalability in complex, long-horizon tasks.
Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
Cite as: arXiv:2603.08754 [cs.LG]
  (or arXiv:2603.08754v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.08754
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arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Submission history

From: Huize Tan [view email]
[v1] Sat, 7 Mar 2026 06:05:20 UTC (363 KB)
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