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On Additive Gaussian Processes for Wind Farm Power Prediction

arXiv cs.LG / 3/20/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper proposes additive Gaussian processes to separate turbine-specific and farm-level power models, enabling analysis of variations across the wind farm.
  • It adopts a population-based structural health monitoring perspective and demonstrates the approach on a wind farm dataset to reveal patterns in power generation.
  • The findings indicate the method can support more informed control and decision-making for wind farm operations and maintenance planning.
  • As a new arXiv preprint (v1), the work offers a novel methodological framework for modeling wind energy systems with uncertainty quantification.

Abstract

Population-based Structural Health Monitoring (PBSHM) aims to share information between similar machines or structures. This paper takes a population-level perspective, exploring the use of additive Gaussian processes to reveal variations in turbine-specific and farm-level power models over a collected wind farm dataset. The predictions illustrate patterns in wind farm power generation, which follow intuition and should enable more informed control and decision-making.