LLMs Should Express Uncertainty Explicitly

arXiv cs.LG / 4/8/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper argues that uncertainty in large language models should be expressed explicitly as an interface for control, rather than estimated only after generation as a hidden quantity.
  • It compares two approaches: a global calibrated confidence score for the final answer and a local in-reasoning <uncertain> marker emitted when the model enters a high-risk state.
  • Verbalized confidence improves calibration, reduces overconfident mistakes, and enables a stronger Adaptive RAG controller that uses retrieval more selectively.
  • Reasoning-time uncertainty signaling makes silent failures visible during generation, increases coverage of wrong answers, and can serve as an effective high-recall retrieval trigger.
  • The authors find the mechanisms differ internally, with verbal confidence mainly refining uncertainty decoding while reasoning-time signaling causes a broader late-layer reorganization.

Abstract

Large language models are increasingly used in settings where uncertainty must drive decisions such as abstention, retrieval, and verification. Most existing methods treat uncertainty as a latent quantity to estimate after generation rather than a signal the model is trained to express. We instead study uncertainty as an interface for control. We compare two complementary interfaces: a global interface, where the model verbalizes a calibrated confidence score for its final answer, and a local interface, where the model emits an explicit marker during reasoning when it enters a high-risk state. These interfaces provide different but complementary benefits. Verbalized confidence substantially improves calibration, reduces overconfident errors, and yields the strongest overall Adaptive RAG controller while using retrieval more selectively. Reasoning-time uncertainty signaling makes previously silent failures visible during generation, improves wrong-answer coverage, and provides an effective high-recall retrieval trigger. Our findings further show that the two interfaces work differently internally: verbal confidence mainly refines how existing uncertainty is decoded, whereas reasoning-time signaling induces a broader late-layer reorganization. Together, these results suggest that effective uncertainty in LLMs should be trained as task-matched communication: global confidence for deciding whether to trust a final answer, and local signals for deciding when intervention is needed.