Online Intention Prediction via Control-Informed Learning

arXiv cs.RO / 4/13/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper introduces an online framework to predict the intention (goal state) of autonomous systems in real time, including cases where intentions change over time.
  • It formulates intention prediction as an inverse optimal control / inverse reinforcement learning problem, treating intention as a parameter within the objective function.
  • A shifting-horizon strategy is used to downweight outdated observations, improving robustness for time-varying behavior.
  • The method uses online control-informed learning to enable efficient gradient computation and continuous online updates of unknown parameters.
  • Simulations across different noise conditions and real quadrotor hardware experiments show improved, adaptive intention prediction in complex environments.

Abstract

This paper presents an online intention prediction framework for estimating the goal state of autonomous systems in real time, even when intention is time-varying, and system dynamics or objectives include unknown parameters. The problem is formulated as an inverse optimal control / inverse reinforcement learning task, with the intention treated as a parameter in the objective. A shifting horizon strategy discounts outdated information, while online control-informed learning enables efficient gradient computation and online parameter updates. Simulations under varying noise levels and hardware experiments on a quadrotor drone demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves accurate, adaptive intention prediction in complex environments.