SOCIA-EVO: Automated Simulator Construction via Dual-Anchored Bi-Level Optimization

arXiv cs.AI / 4/21/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper argues that automated simulator construction must match observed data distributions, which differs from generic code generation approaches.
  • It identifies two key failure modes for long-horizon LLM agents—contextual drift and optimization instability—caused by mixing structural mistakes with parametric calibration errors.
  • SOCIA-EVO is proposed as a dual-anchored evolutionary framework that uses a static blueprint to enforce empirical constraints and a bi-level optimization scheme to separate structural refinement from parameter calibration.
  • It also introduces a self-curating Strategy Playbook that proposes and weights remedial hypotheses using Bayesian-weighted retrieval from execution feedback.
  • Reportedly, SOCIA-EVO validates and discards ineffective strategies via execution feedback, achieving robust convergence and producing simulators that are statistically consistent with observational data, with code and data released on GitHub.

Abstract

Automated simulator construction requires distributional fidelity, distinguishing it from generic code generation. We identify two failure modes in long-horizon LLM agents: contextual drift and optimization instability arising from conflating structural and parametric errors. We propose SOCIA-EVO, a dual-anchored evolutionary framework. SOCIA-EVO introduces: (1) a static blueprint to enforce empirical constraints; (2) a bi-level optimization to decouple structural refinement from parameter calibration; and (3) a self-curating Strategy Playbook that manages remedial hypotheses via Bayesian-weighted retrieval. By falsifying ineffective strategies through execution feedback, SOCIA-EVO achieves robust convergence, generating simulators that are statistically consistent with observational data. The code and data of SOCIA-EVO are available here: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/SOCIA/tree/evo.