Sharp Risk Bounds for Early-Stopping in Gaussian Linear Regression

arXiv stat.ML / 4/29/2026

💬 OpinionIdeas & Deep AnalysisModels & Research

Key Points

  • The paper analyzes early-stopped mirror descent (ESMD) for high-dimensional Gaussian linear regression, focusing on minimizing in-sample mean squared error over arbitrary convex sets.
  • It proves that the sharp risk bounds for the least-squares estimator (LSE), which depend on local Gaussian width, carry over to ESMD under additional conditions.
  • The authors derive sufficient conditions on ESMD’s “potential” (defined using the Minkowski functional) to ensure the extended risk guarantees.
  • They use these conditions to create new potentials, compare ESMD systematically against LSE, and obtain the tightest previously known risk bound for an
  • l1
  • d-constrained scenario.
  • The work provides general criteria for when ESMD is minimax optimal, clarifying when early stopping can match optimal estimation rates.

Abstract

We study early-stopped mirror descent (ESMD) for high-dimensional Gaussian linear regression over arbitrary convex bodies and design matrices, where the task is to minimize the in-sample mean squared error. Our main result shows that some of the sharpest risk bounds for the least squares estimator (LSE), based on the local Gaussian width, extend to ESMD. We derive sufficient conditions on the potential, expressed via the Minkowski functional, under which our result holds. These conditions allow us to construct new potentials and analyze existing ones. Our results then yield general sufficient conditions for minimax optimality of ESMD, provide a systematic comparison with the LSE, and establish the tightest known risk bound in the \ell_1-constrained setting.