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Does the "6 months gap" still hold?

Reddit r/LocalLLaMA / 5/3/2026

💬 OpinionSignals & Early TrendsIdeas & Deep Analysis
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Key Points

  • The post notes a broad consensus that agentic development quality jumped around December 2025, shifting agents from “nice to have” to “actually performing.”
  • It revisits the commonly discussed gap where open-source models allegedly lag the state of the art by about 6 to 12 months.
  • The author asks whether achieving Dec 2025 frontier-level performance from open-source models still requires waiting a few more months, referencing “Opus 4.5?” as a frontier benchmark.
  • The question is framed as an invitation for readers to share their real-world experiences and observations about current model capabilities and timelines.
  • Overall, the article is a community discussion prompt rather than a report of a new model release or definitive measurement of the gap.

Hi. It is quite a consensus that the "jump" in quality of agentic development happened sometime in December 2025, transforming from "nice to have", to actually performing.

It was also long discussed that open source models lag the state of the art by 6 to 12 months.

Now, does it mean that to get the equivalence of Dec 2025 frontier performance (Opus 4.5?) from Open source models, we should still wait a few months? What has your experiences been like?

submitted by /u/ihatebeinganonymous
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