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Is the future of AI green? What can innovation diffusion models say about generative AI's environmental impact?

arXiv cs.AI / 3/24/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper argues that environmental-impact forecasts for generative AI are often overstated because they ignore how innovation diffusion drives product improvements and performance optimization over time, largely for economic reasons.
  • Using a classic A–U innovation diffusion model, it proposes analyzing the generative AI ecosystem to forecast how the industry’s structure will develop.
  • It contends that generative AI will not become “green,” but its environmental harm may be less severe than some claims suggest.
  • The authors emphasize that the overall environmental outlook depends on which business model becomes dominant within the generative AI market.

Abstract

The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) has led to alarming predictions about its environmental impact. However, these predictions often overlook the fact that the diffusion of innovation is accompanied by the evolution of products and the optimization of their performance, primarily for economic reasons. This can also reduce their environmental impact. By analyzing the GAI ecosystem using the classic A-U innovation diffusion model, we can forecast this industry's structure and how its environmental impact will evolve. While GAI will never be green, its impact may not be as problematic as is sometimes claimed. However, this depends on which business model becomes dominant.

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