Abstract
Firms that price perishable resources -- airline seats, hotel rooms, seasonal inventory -- now routinely use demand predictions, but these predictions vary widely in quality. Under hard capacity constraints, acting on an inaccurate prediction can irreversibly deplete inventory needed for future periods. We study how prediction uncertainty propagates into dynamic pricing decisions with linear demand, stochastic noise, and finite capacity. A certified demand forecast with known error bound~\epsilon^0 specifies where the system should operate: it shifts regret from O(\sqrt{T}) to O(\log T) when \epsilon^0 \lesssim T^{-1/4}, and we prove this threshold is tight. A misspecified surrogate model -- biased but correlated with true demand -- cannot set prices directly but reduces learning variance by a factor of (1-\rho^2) through control variates. The two mechanisms compose: the forecast determines the regret regime; the surrogate tightens estimation within it. All algorithms rest on a boundary attraction mechanism that stabilizes pricing near degenerate capacity boundaries without requiring non-degeneracy assumptions. Experiments confirm the phase transition threshold, the variance reduction from surrogates, and robustness across problem instances.
