Generating Effective CoT Traces for Mitigating Causal Hallucination

arXiv cs.CL / 4/15/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper addresses severe causal hallucination in event causality identification (ECI) for smaller LLMs (≤1.5B parameters) and evaluates Chain-of-Thought (CoT) fine-tuning as a mitigation strategy.
  • It analyzes what “effective” CoT traces should contain for this causal setting and proposes a generation pipeline to produce CoT traces that satisfy those criteria.
  • Because no prior metric existed for causal hallucination in ECI, the authors introduce a new evaluation metric, the Causal Hallucination Rate (CHR), to both define trace criteria and validate improvements.
  • Experimental results indicate that fine-tuning with the generated CoT traces substantially reduces causal hallucination while also increasing mean accuracy, with strong cross-dataset/cross-difficulty generalization and robustness to misleading intervention prompts.

Abstract

Although large language models (LLMs) excel in complex reasoning tasks, they suffer from severe causal hallucination in event causality identification (ECI), particularly in smaller models (\leq1.5B parameters). A promising approach to address this issue is to fine-tune them with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces. However, there is currently a lack of CoT trace dataset available for ECI. In this paper, we first investigate the essential criteria that effective CoT traces should possess to mitigate causal hallucination in smaller models. We then design a pipeline to generate CoT traces that meet these criteria. Moreover, since there is currently no metric for quantifying causal hallucination, we also introduce a new metric, the Causal Hallucination Rate (CHR), to quantify causal hallucination, guide the formulation of effective CoT trace criteria, and validate the effectiveness of our pipeline. Our experiments show that fine-tuning with the CoT traces generated by our pipeline not only substantially reduces causal hallucination in smaller LLMs but also improves mean accuracy. Moreover, the fine-tuned models exhibit strong cross-dataset and cross-difficulty generalization, as well as robustness under misleading intervention prompts.