Shrinkage to Infinity: Reducing Test Error by Inflating the Minimum Norm Interpolator in Linear Models

arXiv stat.ML / 5/4/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper investigates linear regression where covariates are highly anisotropic and the dimensional ratio d/n diverges, extending prior work that emphasized the importance of ridge regularization under isotropic conditions.
  • It shows theoretically and empirically that inflating (scaling up) the minimum ℓ2-norm interpolator by a constant factor greater than one can reduce test/generalization error.
  • This “shrinkage to infinity” behavior is presented as a sharp contrast to traditional shrinkage/regularization prescriptions, which typically reduce model complexity rather than amplify interpolation.
  • The authors introduce a data-splitting approach to build consistent estimators whose generalization error matches that of the optimally inflated minimum-norm interpolator.
  • The analysis uses tight matching of upper and lower bounds for expectations of Gaussian random projections under a broad class of anisotropic covariance matrices as d/n→∞.

Abstract

Hastie et al. (2022) found that ridge regularization is essential in high dimensional linear regression y=\beta^Tx + \epsilon with isotropic co-variates x\in \mathbb{R}^d and n samples at fixed d/n. However, Hastie et al. (2022) also notes that when the co-variates are anisotropic and \beta is aligned with the top eigenvalues of population covariance, the "situation is qualitatively different." In the present article, we make precise this observation for linear regression with highly anisotropic covariances and diverging d/n. We find (both theoretically and empirically) that simply scaling up (or inflating) the minimum \ell_2 norm interpolator by a constant greater than one can improve the generalization error. This is in sharp contrast to traditional regularization/shrinkage prescriptions. Moreover, we use a data-splitting technique to produce consistent estimators that achieve generalization error comparable to that of the optimally inflated minimum-norm interpolator. Our proof relies on matching upper and lower bounds for expectations of Gaussian random projections for a general class of anisotropic covariance matrices when d/n\rightarrow \infty.