Nonparametric Estimation of Isotropic Covariance Function

arXiv stat.ML / 4/27/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper proposes a nonparametric framework that uses Bernstein polynomial sequences to approximate arbitrary isotropic covariance functions in \(\mathbb{R}^{\infty}\).
  • It develops a computationally efficient sieve maximum likelihood (sML) estimator to learn the unknown isotropic covariance function and studies approximation quality using \(L_\infty\) and \(L_2\) norms.
  • The authors prove consistency of the sieve ML estimator under an increasing-domain asymptotic regime.
  • Numerical experiments on simulated data show the method reduces bias from model misspecification compared with common parametric approaches and improves over other nonparametric competitors in expected \(L_\infty\)/\(L_2\) errors.
  • The study includes a real-data demonstration on precipitation, along with additional technical details and numerical illustrations.

Abstract

A nonparametric model using a sequence of Bernstein polynomials is constructed to approximate arbitrary isotropic covariance functions valid in \mathbb{R}^\infty and related approximation properties are investigated using the popular L_{\infty} norm and L_2 norms. A computationally efficient sieve maximum likelihood (sML) estimation is then developed to nonparametrically estimate the unknown isotropic covaraince function valid in \mathbb{R}^\infty. Consistency of the proposed sieve ML estimator is established under increasing domain regime. The proposed methodology is compared numerically with couple of existing nonparametric as well as with commonly used parametric methods. Numerical results based on simulated data show that our approach outperforms the parametric methods in reducing bias due to model misspecification and also the nonparametric methods in terms of having significantly lower values of expected L_{\infty} and L_2 norms. Application to precipitation data is illustrated to showcase a real case study. Additional technical details and numerical illustrations are also made available.