A Theory of Nonparametric Covariance Function Estimation for Discretely Observed Data

arXiv stat.ML / 3/25/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper addresses nonparametric estimation of covariance functions for functional data observed with noise at discrete locations in a d-dimensional domain, highlighting the curse of dimensionality from the product-domain definition.
  • It develops an oracle inequality and unified convergence-rate theory for a broad class of learning-based (including deep learning) covariance estimators across both sparse and dense observation regimes.
  • Theoretical results indicate that structural adaptation can partially offset dimensionality penalties, analogous to gains seen in classical nonparametric regression.
  • Through comparisons, the work finds that deep learning estimators can be suboptimal for certain 1D smoothness classes but can achieve near-minimax performance (up to polylog factors) for structured function classes.
  • The analysis characterizes a distinctive adaptivity–variance trade-off in covariance function estimation, clarifying when learning-based methods outperform or underperform classical procedures.

Abstract

We study nonparametric covariance function estimation for functional data observed with noise at discrete locations on a d-dimensional domain. Estimating the covariance function from discretely observed data is a challenging nonparametric problem, particularly in multidimensional settings, since the covariance function is defined on a product domain and thus suffers from the curse of dimensionality. This motivates the use of adaptive estimators, such as deep learning estimators. However, existing theoretical results are largely limited to estimators with explicit analytic representations, and the properties of general learning-based estimators remain poorly understood. We establish an oracle inequality for a broad class of learning-based estimators that applies to both sparse and dense observation regimes in a unified manner, and derive convergence rates for deep learning estimators over several classes of covariance functions. The resulting rates suggest that structural adaptation can mitigate the curse of dimensionality, similarly to classical nonparametric regression. We further compare the convergence rates of learning-based estimators with several existing procedures. For a one-dimensional smoothness class, deep learning estimators are suboptimal, whereas local linear smoothing estimators achieve a faster rate. For a structured function class, however, deep learning estimators attain the minimax rate up to polylogarithmic factors, whereas local linear smoothing estimators are suboptimal. These results reveal a distinctive adaptivity-variance trade-off in covariance function estimation.