Barriers to Counterfactual Credit Attribution for Autoregressive Models
arXiv cs.LG / 5/5/2026
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Key Points
- The paper revisits counterfactual credit attribution (CCA) as a technical framework for determining which prior work a generative model’s output significantly depends on.
- It studies CCA for autoregressive generative models that need to attribute credit to a deployment-time dataset such as a RAG database.
- The authors show a key limitation: enforcing CCA on the underlying next-token predictor does not ensure the full autoregressive model satisfies CCA, because CCA does not compose autoregressively (unlike differential privacy).
- They propose an alternative “retrofitting” method that adds credit after the fact, but prove that under a weak optimality condition, black-box retrofitting needs exponentially many queries relative to the output length.
- Overall, the work identifies fundamental barriers to making practical CCA-style attribution workable for autoregressive systems.
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