Abstract
Effective ride-hailing dispatch requires anticipating demand patterns that vary substantially across time-of-day, day-of-week, season, and special events. We propose a regime-calibrated approach that (i) segments historical trip data into demand regimes, (ii) matches the current operating period to the most similar historical analogues via a six-metric similarity ensemble (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Wasserstein-1, feature distance, variance ratio, event pattern, temporal proximity), and (iii) uses the resulting calibrated demand prior to drive both an LP-based fleet repositioning policy and batch dispatch with Hungarian matching. In ablation, a distributional-only subset is strongest on mean wait, while the full ensemble is retained as a robustness-oriented default.
Evaluated on 5.2 million NYC TLC trips across 8 diverse scenarios (winter/summer, weekday/weekend/holiday, morning/evening/night) with 5 random seeds each, our method reduces mean rider wait times by 31.1% (bootstrap 95% CI: [26.5, 36.6]%; Friedman chi-sq = 80.0, p = 4.25e-18; Cohen's d = 7.5-29.9 across scenarios). The improvement extends to the tail: P95 wait drops 37.6% and the Gini coefficient of wait times improves from 0.441 to 0.409 (7.3% relative). The two contributions compose multiplicatively and are independently validated: calibration provides 16.9% reduction; LP repositioning adds a further 15.5%. The approach requires no training, is deterministic and explainable, generalizes to Chicago (23.3% wait reduction via NYC-built regime library), and is robust across fleet sizes (32-47% improvement for 0.5-2x fleet scaling). We provide comprehensive ablation studies, formal statistical tests, and routing-fidelity validation with OSRM.
