ILDR: Geometric Early Detection of Grokking

Abstract

Grokking describes a delayed generalization phenomenon in which a neural network achieves perfect training accuracy long before validation accuracy improves, followed by an abrupt transition to strong generalization. Existing detection signals are indirect: weight norm reflects parameter-space regularization and consistently lags the transition, while GrokFast's slow gradient EMA, used without gradient amplification, is unstable across seeds with standard deviation exceeding mean lead time. We propose the Inter/Intra-class Distance Ratio (ILDR), a geometric metric computed on second-to-last layer representations as the ratio of inter-class centroid separation to intra-class scatter. ILDR provides an early detection signal: it rises and crosses a threshold at 2.5 times its baseline before the grokking transition appears in validation accuracy, indicating early geometric reorganization in representation space. Grounded in Fisher's linear discriminant criterion, ILDR requires no eigendecomposition and runs in O(|C|^2 + N). It is evaluated exclusively on held-out data, making it robust to memorization effects. Across modular arithmetic and permutation group composition (S5), ILDR leads the grokking transition by 9 to 73 percent of the training budget, with lead time increasing with task algebraic complexity. Over eight random seeds, ILDR leads by 950 +/- 250 steps with a coefficient of variation of 26 percent, and post-grokking variance drops by 1696 times, consistent with a sharp phase transition in representation space. Using ILDR as an early stopping trigger reduces training by 18.6 percent on average. Optimizer interventions triggered at the ILDR threshold demonstrate bidirectional control over the transition, suggesting ILDR tracks representational conditions underlying generalization rather than a downstream correlate.