Improved identification of breakpoints in piecewise regression and its applications

arXiv stat.ML / 4/14/2026

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Key Points

  • The paper introduces new greedy-algorithm-based methods to identify breakpoints in piecewise polynomial regression more accurately and efficiently than prior approaches.
  • The proposed technique refines breakpoint locations by searching in the neighborhood of each breakpoint to reduce fitting error while maintaining stability and fast convergence.
  • It can automatically determine the optimal number of breakpoints rather than requiring that number as an input.
  • Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets show improved accuracy over existing methods, and the inferred breakpoints provide useful, interpretable data insights in real applications.

Abstract

Identifying breakpoints in piecewise regression is critical in enhancing the reliability and interpretability of data fitting. In this paper, we propose novel algorithms based on the greedy algorithm to accurately and efficiently identify breakpoints in piecewise polynomial regression. The algorithm updates the breakpoints to minimize the error by exploring the neighborhood of each breakpoint. It has a fast convergence rate and stability to find optimal breakpoints. Moreover, it can determine the optimal number of breakpoints. The computational results for real and synthetic data show that its accuracy is better than any existing methods. The real-world datasets demonstrate that breakpoints through the proposed algorithm provide valuable data information.