FAIR Universe Weak Lensing ML Uncertainty Challenge: Handling Uncertainties and Distribution Shifts for Precision Cosmology

Abstract

Weak gravitational lensing, the correlated distortion of background galaxy shapes by foreground structures, is a powerful probe of the matter distribution in our universe and allows accurate constraints on the cosmological model. In recent years, high-order statistics and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to weak lensing data to extract the nonlinear information beyond traditional two-point analysis. However, these methods typically rely on cosmological simulations, which poses several challenges: simulations are computationally expensive, limiting most realistic setups to a low training data regime; inaccurate modeling of systematics in the simulations create distribution shifts that can bias cosmological parameter constraints; and varying simulation setups across studies make method comparison difficult. To address these difficulties, we present the first weak lensing benchmark dataset with several realistic systematics and launch the FAIR Universe Weak Lensing Machine Learning Uncertainty Challenge. The challenge focuses on measuring the fundamental properties of the universe from weak lensing data with limited training set and potential distribution shifts, while providing a standardized benchmark for rigorous comparison across methods. Organized in two phases, the challenge will bring together the physics and ML communities to advance the methodologies for handling systematic uncertainties, data efficiency, and distribution shifts in weak lensing analysis with ML, ultimately facilitating the deployment of ML approaches into upcoming weak lensing survey analysis.