US-China AI Geopolitics and Sovereign AI: Export Controls, Domestic Models, National Strategies

AI Navigate Original / 4/27/2026

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Key Points

  • AI is now a national strategic resource; export controls, subsidies
  • US controls/Entity List; China builds domestic models (DeepSeek/Qwen)
  • Europe leads by regulation; Japan hybrid foreign-cloud + domestic
  • Companies must select cloud/models accounting for geopolitics

AI Became a "National Strategic Resource"

Until 2022, AI was a private-competition area, but post-ChatGPT, governments position "AI as a national strategic resource on par with nuclear weapons and semiconductors." Export controls, subsidies, and data-center attraction are becoming central topics of diplomatic negotiation.

US Strategy

Export Controls

  • 2022: ban on H100/A100 export to China
  • 2023: regulation-compliant H800/A800 also banned
  • 2024: low-performance versions like H20 also targeted, HBM export also regulated
  • 2025: debate on export controls for AI-model weights/services

Entity List

SMIC, Huawei, DeepSeek etc. added to the US Entity List, restricting access to US products/technology. OpenAI also restricts API access from mainland China.

Subsidies/Industrial Policy

  • CHIPS Act (2022): $52B
  • Stargate concept (OpenAI + Oracle + SoftBank): hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars scale

China's Response

Domestic Frontier Models

  • DeepSeek V3 / R1: surprised the world with low-cost training
  • Qwen 3 / 4 (Alibaba): world-top-class as open-weight
  • GLM (Zhipu): enterprise-oriented
  • Kimi (Moonshot): long-context specialized

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