Title: In 20 years, will programming be the "new plumbing"?

Reddit r/artificial / 3/26/2026

💬 OpinionSignals & Early TrendsIdeas & Deep Analysis

Key Points

  • The post argues that today’s “AI will write all the code” narrative may reduce the number of people learning to program, creating a future shortage of developers who can work without AI assistance.
  • It draws an analogy to the historical “plumbing/electrical are dead ends” attitude, claiming that when demand rose, lack of training led to booked-out specialists and high pay.
  • The author suggests that, over 20 years, the ability to read, debug, and reason about code independently could become a scarce, highly valued skill similar to traditional trades.
  • The post questions whether this concern is overthinking, framing the idea as a speculative trend rather than a confirmed fact.

So for decades were told to skip trade jobs and go to college. Plumbing and electrical work were all seen as dead-end careers. Now plumbers are booked out for weeks, pulling six figures, and there's a massive shortage because nobody learned the skill.

I think we're doing the exact same thing with programming right now.

The whole vibe is "AI will write all the code, why bother learning to program."

Fewer people learning to code + same or growing demand for people who understand code = the trades shortage all over again, just in tech.

I genuinely think in 20 years the guys who can read and debug code without AI holding their hand will be like today's plumber. Hard to find, charging whatever they want.

Am I overthinking this?

submitted by /u/PrismShutter
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